Communications between senior members of the National Democratic Congress (NDC)) indicate that members of the party are increasingly becoming disillusioned about the electoral chances of John Mahama in the 2020 elections.
Fourteen months away from the general elections, sources in the NDC indicate JM has struggled to choose a running mate as possible suitors are eyeing a post Mahama era in 2024.
Additionally his internal numbers have remained stubbornly stagnant.
It is the last cast of the dice for JM as a loss in the 2020 elections will be the end of his dream of becoming president again.
It will be recalled JM lost the 2016 elections by over 1 million votes. The largest in the electoral history of Ghana
The Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) captured in its recent report on Ghana that former President John Mahama is not a credible candidate as far as management of the Ghanaian economy is concerned.
As such, the report indicates that Mr. Mahama who is leading the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) into the 2020 Presidential Election would lose once again.
Mr. Mahama lost the 2016 Presidential election as incumbent to then opposition New Patriotic Party’s candidate, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo.
The latest report available is predicting yet another electoral victory for President Akufo-Addo in 2020 against his ‘bitterest’ political opponent, Mr. Mahama.
The 60-year-old Mahama has been Ghana’s one-term Vice President as well as President but his tenure as President suffered severe credibility crisis, especially on issues bordering on high-profile corruption in officialdom.
According to the Economic Intelligence Unit’s report, with the positive outlook for the Ghanaian economy, incumbent Akufo-Addo would retain the Presidency.
Election Watch
The 25 pages report says specifically that “the next national elections are due in November 2020.”
It adds that “Nana Akufo-Addo, the president, and his NPP will see the economic situation generally improve during the remainder of their terms of office.”
According
to the report, “in the presidential election, Mr AkufoAddo will face a
challenge from John Mahama — Ghana’s president from 2012 to early 2017— who was
elected leader of the opposition NDC in
February 2019.”
It says “the 2016 legislative election was won by the NPP; the campaign was dominated by the faltering economy, which many Ghanaians still associate with Mr Mahama.”
It observes that “accordingly, the Economist Intelligence Unit believes that it will be difficult for the NDC under Mr Mahama to portray itself as the better custodian of Ghana’s economy, especially as the country’s growth outlook is fairly strong.”
According to the report, “we therefore expect Mr Akufo-Addo and the NPP to secure re-election in 2020.”
It says “however, if the NDC can present a coherent opposition and hold the NPP to account on unfulfilled campaign promises — particularly on job creation and industrialisation, where progress has been generally slow and success patchy — the election could be closely contested.”
Political Stability
Giving a forecast period of 2019-2023, the report points out that “Ghana’s underlying political stability is expected to endure over the forecast period, despite an acrimonious party political landscape.”
It says “the two dominant parties — the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC)—have alternated in power since the return of multiparty politics in 1992, and their rivalry will remain the key feature of the political scene.
Instances of intimidation and violence between their supporters have been reported at recent general elections.”
It adds that “these are likely to continue, although such incidents are very limited outside election campaigns, and are not expected to lead to broader unrest.”
Corruption Fight
According to the report, “corruption in the public sector remains endemic and a source of anger among the population.”
It adds that “in February 2018 a special prosecutor, Martin Amidu, was sworn in, with the remit of reducing graft.”
It says “progress has not yet been reported, but the pressure to reduce corruption will rise ahead of the 2020 elections.” Failure to address this issue could weigh on voter confidence in the political system, although such grievances are relatively low-level.”
