A recent poll conducted by some researchers from the University of Ghana reveals that Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia and John Dramani Mahama are currently neck-and-neck, with each likely to command 46.3% of voter support in the 2024 Presidential elections.
The survey, conducted in August, suggests that while the race is incredibly close, Bawumia could potentially surpass Mahama if he presents compelling and effective policies, as that is what most of the electorate demand.
The comprehensive poll, which surveyed 28,935 respondents across all 276 constituencies in the country, utilized a multi-stage sampling technique to ensure broad representation. The survey included diverse demographic variables such as gender, age, profession, and other socio-economic factors, ensuring that the results accurately reflect the views of the Ghanaian electorate.
Of those surveyed, a balanced split of 49% male and 51% female respondents provided insights into their voting patterns and preferences. Notably, 80% of respondents reported participating in the 2016 general elections, indicating a well-informed electorate familiar with recent political trends.
When it comes to forecasting the winner of the presidency, both major parties—the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP)—are equally poised, each securing 46.3% in the survey. A small but significant 3% of voters remain undecided, while smaller parties and independent candidates collectively hold 4.4% of the electorate’s support. This split underscores the possibility of a runoff, as neither the NDC nor the NPP may fully capture the undecided voters alone.
The survey highlights a critical factor in the upcoming elections: party programs and manifestos play critical roles. Approximately 60% of surveyed persons indicated they would cast their ballots based on the party’s manifesto rather than their sheer political affiliation. That should provide crucial insight for both leading candidates. For Bawumia, this suggests that a well-articulated and practical set of policies could be the key to gaining an edge over Mahama, especially given the current dissatisfaction among some elite voters with the NDC’s proposals.
Current sentiments reveal that the NPP’s manifesto has sparked optimism among the middle class, who are looking for credible solutions to address the high cost of living and economic fluctuations. Conversely, the NDC’s platform, which centers around the “TWENTY FOUR-HOUR ECONOMY” concept, has not yet convincingly addressed these concerns to the satisfaction of many voters.
The data further indicates that political manifestos are a significant driving force behind voter decisions, highlighting the importance of comprehensive and well-communicated policy proposals. Both candidates will need to capitalize on this by delivering persuasive and actionable plans to secure the support of the undecided and sway persons leaning towards smaller parties.
As the 2024 elections draw closer, the stakes are high for both Bawumia and Mahama. With the electorate’s focus keenly fixed on realistic and feasible manifestos, the coming months will be crucial in determining who can turn policy promises into electoral success.
